Expected value calculator
Sell now or consign?
Waiting costs money. Every month you hold the car, you pay insurance, lose value to the market, and tie up cash that could be doing something else. A consignment sale can beat a dealer's buy-in. But only if the extra sale price covers that monthly drag, and the fee doesn't eat the rest.
This calculator does the maths. Set the dealer's offer, the car's expected sale price, and how long you're willing to wait. It compares four paths: buy-in now, standard-commission consignment, low-commission consignment, and a fixed payout deal. Whichever number comes out highest is your best move today. Not a guess.
How to use it
- Set the three shared numbers at the top: the buy-in offer, the monthly price drop, and the monthly holding cost.
- Open a card and set its own numbers: sale price, fee or payout, chance of selling, and how long you'd wait.
- Read the big number in each card. That's the expected value of that option, in today's dollars.
- Check the line under it. A plus number means that option beats the buy-in.
- Go with the card marked "Best value." Change any number and every card updates at once.
This is a thinking tool, not financial advice.
Shared assumptions, for every option below
Best value right now: Consign, fixed payout, $502.0k (+$2.0k vs buy-in).
Buy-in now
Sell to the dealer today. No wait, no risk.
This option only uses the shared buy-in offer (B) above. There is nothing else to set.
Consign, standard commission
An agent lists it and takes a cut when it sells.
Consign, low commission
A lower-fee consignment option. Set your own price and wait time.
Consign, fixed payout
You get a flat amount when it sells, whatever the final price.
How the numbers work
Every consignment option is scored against the chance it sells in time, and what happens if it doesn't.
EV = p × [SaleValue − h·t] + (1 − p) × [B − (d + h)·T]- Commission channel: SaleValue = (S − d·t) × (1 − c)
- Fixed payout channel: SaleValue = P
- Buy-in channel: EV = B
Consign only if the expected value beats the buy-in offer, that is, EV is greater than B.
| Var | Meaning | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| B | Firm buy-in offer today | $k |
| d | Market price drop per month | $k |
| h | Holding cost per month (insurance + cost of capital) | $k |
| S | Expected sale price today | $k |
| c | Commission incl. GST | % |
| P | Fixed payout to owner | $k |
| p | Probability of sale in the window | % |
| t | Months to sale if it sells | months |
| T | Months before giving up and taking a buy-in | months |